CLAIM:
Violent Crime Rates 11% to 14% Higher by years 7 through 10 following the adoption of Right to Carry (RTC) law, than predicted vs. stats without RTC
Report Highlights
- An FBI analysis of active shooter situations further revealed that unarmed civilians are more than 20 times as likelyto successfully end an active shooting than are armed civilians (excluding armed security guards).
- Since May 2007, more than 1,000 people have died at the hands of persons who held concealed carry permits, including 31 mass shootings and the killings of 19 police officers.
- Many concealed carry holders who committed fatal shootings have histories of domestic abuse, criminality, substance misuse, and suididal behavior.
- In the 13 states with the lowest standards for legal gun ownership, 60% of those who are incarcerated for committing violent crimes with guns legally possessed the guns they used in those crimes. Each of these 13 states have RTC or permitless carry laws.
- After controlling for changes in incarceration rates and the number of police per capita, RTC laws were associated with a 10% higher murder rate 10 years following the adoption of RTC laws.
- Many events reported as defensive gun uses (DGUs) are not purely defensive, justified, or lawful. Only 43% of reported DGUs were deemed to be legally justified uses of firearms by judges.
- Using a firearm does not alter injury risk during criminal victimization; 4% of victims were injured after they used or attempted to use a firearm in self-defense compared to 4% of victims who were injured after they took other proactive protective measures.
- The U.S. Supreme Court has said that the Second Amendment is “not a right to keep and carry any weapon whatsoever in any manner whatsoever and for whatever purpose.”
- 83% of gun owners agreed“… that a person who can legally carry a concealed gun should be required to pass a test demonstrating they can safely an lawfully handle a gun in common situations they might encounter.” The same percentage (83%) of Republicans agreed with this statement, as well as 87% of Democratsand 84% of Independents.
REBUTTAL:
The Johns Hopkins University report titled “Concealed Carry of Firearms: Facts vs. Fiction” (November 2017) presents several claims regarding the impact of Right-to-Carry (RTC) laws and the behavior of concealed carry permit holders. Here’s an analysis of these claims:
1. Claim: Violent Crime Rates Increase 11% to 14% Within 7 to 10 Years Post-RTC Adoption
- Analysis: This assertion is based on studies that have been contested within the academic community. Some research indicates a correlation between RTC laws and increased violent crime rates, while other studies suggest no significant impact or even a reduction in crime. The variability in findings suggests that factors beyond RTC laws, such as socioeconomic conditions and law enforcement practices, play substantial roles in influencing crime rates.
2. Claim: Unarmed Civilians Are More Effective Than Armed Civilians in Ending Active Shooter Situations
- Analysis: The FBI’s analysis of active shooter incidents from 2000 to 2013 indicates that unarmed civilians successfully intervened in a limited number of cases. However, the data set is small, and the effectiveness of armed versus unarmed intervention can vary widely depending on the specific circumstances of each incident. It’s important to note that in many cases, active shooter situations are resolved by law enforcement or the shooter themselves, making it challenging to draw definitive conclusions about civilian interventions.
3. Claim: Over 1,000 Deaths Attributed to Concealed Carry Permit Holders Since 2007
- Analysis: This statistic includes incidents such as suicides, domestic disputes, and other situations not directly related to public carry. While any loss of life is tragic, it’s essential to distinguish between criminal misuse of firearms by permit holders and other types of incidents. The vast majority of concealed carry permit holders are law-abiding citizens who do not misuse their firearms.
4. Claim: Many Concealed Carry Holders Who Committed Fatal Shootings Have Histories of Concerning Behavior
- Analysis: While there have been instances where permit holders with prior concerning behavior committed crimes, these cases are exceptions rather than the rule. Most states require background checks and disqualify individuals with felony convictions or certain misdemeanor offenses from obtaining permits. Strengthening background checks and ensuring consistent enforcement can help mitigate this issue.
5. Claim: In States with Low Standards for Gun Ownership, 60% of Incarcerated Individuals for Violent Crimes Legally Possessed Their Guns
- Analysis: This statistic suggests that in certain states with permissive gun laws, a significant portion of individuals incarcerated for violent crimes legally owned their firearms. This highlights the need for comprehensive background checks and possibly reevaluating the criteria for legal gun ownership to prevent individuals prone to violence from obtaining firearms legally.
6. Claim: RTC Laws Associated with a 10% Higher Murder Rate After 10 Years
- Analysis: Similar to the first claim, this assertion is based on studies with contested findings. The relationship between RTC laws and murder rates is complex and influenced by various factors. Some studies have found increases in certain types of violent crime post-RTC adoption, while others have not observed significant changes. It’s crucial to consider the broader context, including enforcement practices and community programs, when evaluating these statistics.
7. Claim: Many Defensive Gun Uses (DGUs) Are Not Legally Justified
- Analysis: Determining the legality of DGUs can be complex and context-dependent. While some reported DGUs may not meet legal standards for justification, many do. The statistic that only 43% are deemed legally justified suggests a need for better education and training for gun owners on the lawful use of force.
8. Claim: Using a Firearm Does Not Alter Injury Risk During Criminal Victimization
- Analysis: Studies on victim injury rates during criminal incidents have shown mixed results regarding the effectiveness of using a firearm for self-defense. Some research indicates that resisting with a firearm can reduce the likelihood of property loss and injury, while other studies suggest it may not significantly change injury risk. The effectiveness of defensive gun use likely varies based on the situation and the individual’s proficiency with the firearm.
9. Claim: The Second Amendment Does Not Guarantee Unrestricted Right to Carry
- Analysis: The U.S. Supreme Court, in decisions such as District of Columbia v. Heller (2008), has affirmed an individual’s right to possess firearms while also acknowledging that this right is not unlimited. Regulations on carrying firearms, especially in sensitive places or by certain individuals, have been deemed permissible. Thus, while the Second Amendment protects individual gun ownership, it does not preclude all forms of regulation.
10. Claim: Broad Support for Requiring Competency Tests for Concealed Carry
- Analysis: The reported statistic that 83% of gun owners, including a majority across political affiliations, support requiring individuals to pass a test demonstrating safe and lawful handling of a gun before carrying concealed aligns with other surveys indicating that gun owners often favor responsible ownership measures. This suggests that many in the gun-owning community support training and competency assessments to ensure public safety.
Conclusion:
While the Johns Hopkins report presents data suggesting potential risks associated with RTC laws and concealed carry permit holders, it’s essential to interpret these findings within a broader context. The relationship between gun laws, crime rates, and public safety is multifaceted, influenced by various social, economic, and cultural factors. Policymaking in this area should consider the full spectrum of research, respect constitutional rights, and aim for solutions that effectively enhance public safety without unduly infringing on individual liberties.