CLAIM:
“10.6% higher handgun homicide rate” in states with “shall issue” laws versus “may issue” laws
Authors used data from the following sources and examined the years from 1991 to 2015 for all 50 states:
- Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and Prevention’s Web-Based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting Systems database
- Federal Bureau of Investigation’s (FBI) Uniform Crime Reports Supplemental Homicide Reports (SHR)
REBUTTAL:
1. The Study Does Not Prove Causation, Only Correlation
- The study assumes that “shall-issue” laws cause an increase in homicides, but correlation does not equal causation.
- Many factors influence homicide rates, including:
- Urbanization levels (higher in may-issue states like CA, NY, NJ, and MA).
- Gang activity and drug-related violence.
- Socioeconomic disparities.
- Policing and criminal justice policies.
🔹 Example:
- Chicago, Baltimore, and New York all have may-issue laws but high homicide rates.
- Vermont and Maine (permitless carry) have some of the lowest homicide rates in the nation.
2. FBI Crime Data Does Not Show a Consistent Relationship Between CCW Laws and Homicide Rates
- FBI Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) show that violent crime and homicide rates do not increase in shall-issue states.
- Many shall-issue states (e.g., Utah, Iowa, New Hampshire) have far lower homicide rates than restrictive states like New York or California.
🔹 Rhode Island Comparison:
- Rhode Island is a may-issue state, yet its homicide rate is already low (~2.5 per 100,000).
- Other may-issue states like Maryland and New Jersey have far higher crime rates than shall-issue states.
3. Shall-Issue States Have More Law-Abiding Permit Holders
- Multiple studies show that concealed carry permit holders commit crimes at lower rates than the general public.
- A 2023 Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC) report found that CCW permit holders are less likely to commit crimes than even police officers.
🔹 Texas Example (2022)
- Concealed carry permit holders committed crimes at a rate of 0.2 per 100,000 permit holders—far lower than the general population.
4. The Study Ignores Defensive Gun Use (DGU)
- The study fails to account for the millions of defensive gun uses (DGUs) each year.
- CDC studies estimate 500,000 to 3 million DGUs annually—which prevent crime.
- Defensive firearm use is rarely reported in homicide statistics, making it an incomplete picture.
Conclusion: No Clear Link Between Shall-Issue Laws and Homicide Rates
The study shows correlation, not causation.
- Crime data does not support the claim that CCW laws increase homicide.
- Permit holders are overwhelmingly law-abiding.
- Urban factors, gang activity, and policing strategies play a larger role in crime rates.
RI Specific data:
While specific crime statistics for Rhode Island’s concealed carry permit holders are not readily available, studies from other jurisdictions provide insight into the behavior of permit holders. For instance, research indicates that concealed carry permit holders generally have lower rates of criminal activity compared to the general population. A study highlighted by Gun Facts notes that over a four-year period, the violent crime arrest rate for permit holders was 128 per 100,000, whereas the general population’s rate was 710 per 100,000, suggesting that permit holders are approximately 5.5 times less likely to commit violent crimes.