CLAIM:
Abstract: National Library of Science. Published November 1, 2023.
Background: The recent rise of gun violence may lead to the perception that the problem of gun mortality in the United States is intractable. This article provides evidence to counter this perception by bringing attention to the period spanning from 1991 to 2016 when most US states implemented more restrictive gun laws. Over this period, the United States experienced a decline in household gun ownership, and gun-related deaths fell sharply.
Methods: The main analysis examines the conditional association between the change in gun regulations at the state level and the change in gun mortality from 1991 to 2016. We include a range of robustness checks and two instrumental variable analyses to allow for stronger causal inferences.
Results: We find strong, consistent evidence supporting the hypothesis that restrictive state gun policies reduce overall gun deaths, homicides committed with a gun, and suicides committed with a gun. Each additional restrictive gun regulation a given state passed from 1991 to 2016 was associated with -0.21 (95% confidence interval = -0.33, -0.08) gun deaths per 100,000 residents. Further, we find that specific policies, such as background checks and waiting periods for gun purchases, were associated with lower overall gun death rates, gun homicide rates, and gun suicide rates.
Conclusion: State regulations passed from 1991 to 2016 were associated with substantial reductions in gun mortality. We estimate that restrictive state gun policies passed in 40 states from 1991 to 2016 averted 4297 gun deaths in 2016 alone, or roughly 11% of the total gun deaths that year.
Rebuttal:
This study claims a correlation between state-level gun restrictions and reduced firearm mortality between 1991 and 2016. While the data may show an association, correlation does not imply causation. Here are key points to challenge or scrutinize in the study’s findings:
1. Ignores Nationwide Decline in Violent Crime (Not Just Gun Laws)
- The 1991–2016 timeframe coincides with a historic national drop in violent crime, regardless of firearm laws.
- According to FBI Uniform Crime Reports (UCR), homicides (including gun-related ones) plummeted from the early 1990s through the mid-2010s, driven by multiple factors, including better policing, demographic shifts, and economic improvements.
- Gun deaths didn’t just fall in states with restrictive laws—they also dropped in states without significant new gun laws.
- The study does not isolate whether gun control laws caused the decline or if it was part of the broader national crime reduction trend.
2. Fails to Account for Rising Gun Ownership While Crime Fell
- While the study suggests that household gun ownership declined, the reality is that gun sales surged, especially post-2008.
- From 2000 to 2016, the FBI NICS background check system recorded millions of new firearm purchases, reflecting an increase in civilian gun ownership.
- Despite more guns in circulation, gun homicides and overall crime rates continued declining during this period—contradicting the study’s implication that fewer guns led to fewer deaths.
3. Selective Focus on “Restrictive” Laws Without Addressing Other Gun Policies
- The study only credits restrictive laws for the reduction in gun deaths but does not examine whether pro-gun policies (like concealed carry expansion) may have contributed to reduced crime.
- States that passed Shall-Issue Concealed Carry laws saw significant crime reductions, yet the study does not consider or control for this variable.
4. Fails to Account for Cities with Strict Laws but High Gun Violence
- The study implies that strict gun laws reduce gun deaths, yet some of the cities with the strongest gun laws—like Chicago, Baltimore, and Washington D.C.—have persistently high gun violence rates.
- This challenges the idea that restrictive laws alone can solve gun crime.
5. Doesn’t Address Criminal vs. Law-Abiding Gun Ownership
- Most gun homicides are committed by individuals already prohibited from owning guns, such as felons and gang members.
- Restrictive laws primarily impact law-abiding citizens, not criminals, who obtain firearms illegally.
6. Rhode Island-Specific Data Shows a Different Trend
- Rhode Island has some of the lowest firearm death rates in the U.S.
- Despite having relatively strict laws, Rhode Island’s gun deaths remained low even before new restrictions—suggesting factors other than gun laws contribute to low gun violence in the state.
Conclusion
- This study presents an association, not proof of causation.
- Crime and gun deaths declined nationwide in the 1990s and 2000s, even in states without new gun laws.
- The study ignores evidence that other policies, economic factors, and policing strategies contributed to the drop in violent crime.
- Gun deaths remain high in some of the most restrictive areas, contradicting the claim that more gun laws always lead to lower gun violence.
RI Specific Data:
The study titled “The Era of Progress on Gun Mortality: State Gun Regulations and Gun Deaths from 1991 to 2016” suggests a correlation between restrictive state gun policies and reduced firearm-related deaths. To evaluate this claim within the context of Rhode Island, it’s essential to examine the state’s specific data on gun ownership rates, firearm mortality trends, and the potential impact of legislation.
Gun Ownership Rates in Rhode Island:
- Low Prevalence of Gun Ownership: Rhode Island consistently reports one of the lowest household gun ownership rates in the United States. Between 2007 and 2016, approximately 14.8% of adults in the state lived in households with firearms.
Firearm Mortality Trends:
- Recent Decrease in Gun Deaths: In 2022, Rhode Island experienced a nearly 45% reduction in its overall gun death rate compared to 2021, primarily due to a decline in suicides. This significant decrease positioned Rhode Island as the state with the lowest overall gun death rate and gun suicide rate in the nation for that year.
- Historical Fluctuations: Despite the recent decline, the state’s firearm mortality rate has varied over the past decades. From 2011 to 2020, Rhode Island saw a 73% increase in gun deaths, contrasting with a 33% national increase during the same period.
Impact of Legislation:
- Strength of Gun Laws: Rhode Island ranks 13th nationally in gun law strength. The state has implemented measures such as universal background checks, restrictions on high-capacity magazines, and prohibitions on ghost guns.
- Correlation with Low Gun Death Rates: The combination of stringent gun laws and low household gun ownership may contribute to Rhode Island’s relatively low firearm mortality rates. However, it’s important to recognize that correlation does not imply causation. Other factors, such as socioeconomic conditions, urbanization levels, and regional cultural attitudes toward firearms, can also influence gun violence rates.
Considerations:
- Variability in Data: The fluctuations in Rhode Island’s firearm mortality rates over different periods suggest that multiple factors, beyond legislative measures alone, impact gun-related deaths.
- Comprehensive Approach Needed: While restrictive gun policies may play a role in reducing firearm mortality, a holistic approach that includes community-based interventions, mental health support, and addressing underlying social determinants is crucial for sustained progress.
In summary, Rhode Island’s experience indicates that while restrictive gun laws and low ownership rates are associated with lower firearm mortality, these elements are part of a complex interplay of factors influencing gun violence. Therefore, policy discussions should consider this multifaceted context to develop effective strategies for reducing firearm-related deaths.