CLAIM:
Trend analyses also indicate that high-capacity semiautomatics have grown from 33 to 112% as a share of crime guns since the expiration of the federal ban – a trend that has coincided with recent growth in shootings nationwide.
REBUTTAL:
This study from George Mason University claims that assault weapons and high-capacity firearms have increased in crime since the expiration of the 1994 Federal Assault Weapons Ban and links this to a rise in shootings nationwide. However, a closer examination of the claims reveals several key issues:
1. Claim: “Assault weapons” account for 2–12% of crime guns, but mostly under 7%
Rebuttal: Rifles (including “assault weapons”) are rarely used in crime
- FBI Uniform Crime Reports consistently show that rifles of all types (including AR-15s) account for fewer than 3% of homicides (FBI UCR, 2022).
- Even this study admits that “assault weapons” account for less than 7% of crime guns in most cases, undermining the argument that they are a major driver of gun crime.
2. Claim: High-capacity semiautomatics now account for 22–36% of crime guns, up to 40% in serious violent crimes
Rebuttal: This statistic includes all semiautomatic firearms, not just rifles
- Most firearms sold in the U.S. today are semiautomatic, including nearly all modern handguns.
- The claim bundles together common handguns with rifles, misleading readers into thinking that “assault weapons” play a larger role in crime.
- Handguns remain the weapon of choice for criminals, not rifles or so-called “assault weapons.”
3. Claim: The Expiration of the 1994 Federal Assault Weapons Ban Caused a Surge in Gun Crime
Rebuttal: Multiple studies, including those funded by the DOJ, found the ban had no significant impact on crime
- A 2004 study commissioned by the U.S. Department of Justice found “no discernible reduction in gun violence” due to the 1994 ban.
(NIJ Report, 2004) - Gun violence declined sharply from the 1990s through the early 2010s, even after the ban expired.
- The study fails to control for other factors such as urban crime trends, policing changes, and socioeconomic shifts.
4. Claim: Mass shootings involve “assault weapons” and high-capacity firearms up to 57% of the time
Rebuttal: Handguns remain the most commonly used weapon in mass shootings
- The FBI’s data on active shooter incidents shows that handguns, not rifles, are the most frequently used weapon in mass shootings.
- The Gun Violence Archive (GVA) reports that 77% of mass shootings involve handguns alone (Gun Violence Archive).
- Even when “assault weapons” are used, mass shootings account for less than 1% of all gun deaths in the U.S., meaning bans on these firearms would have little effect on overall gun violence rates.
Rhode Island-Specific Data
- Rhode Island has one of the lowest firearm death rates in the country (Johns Hopkins Public Health).
- Most firearm-related crimes in Rhode Island involve illegally possessed handguns, not rifles.
- There is no clear evidence that an “assault weapons” ban would have a meaningful impact on gun crime in Rhode Island, given that the state’s violent crime is already low compared to national averages.
Conclusion
- This study admits that rifles, including “assault weapons,” are rarely used in crime.
- It lumps in common handguns to inflate statistics about “high-capacity semiautomatics.”
- The DOJ itself concluded that the 1994 Federal Assault Weapons Ban had no significant effect on gun crime.
- Rhode Island-specific data does not support a link between “assault weapons” and gun crime in the state.
This study fails to provide strong evidence that banning so-called “assault weapons” or high-capacity firearms would reduce overall gun violence. Instead, it misrepresents statistics by conflating different types of firearms and ignores broader crime trends that better explain fluctuations in gun violence.